The notion of a herd of lemmings spilling over a cliff holds a certain fascination. Likewise an election. Especially when something the likes of Justin Trudeau is the favourite to win. Anyway, I can’t resist the number crunching and so, despite the risk of being embarrassed by polls which may prove no more accurate than they were in the BC, Alberta and UK elections, here goes nothing.
I’m basing these on the regional breakdown of the Nanos polling numbers for Sunday, Oct 18 and the tooclosetocall.com seat projection spreadsheet. I’ve used another poll, I thinf it was an Ekos poll, to help me figure out how to reconcile the fact that Nanos lumps all 3 Prairie provinces together where tooclosetocall treats Alberta separately. I’ve also had to extrapolate the regional Nanos figures from its 3 day averages using its national 1 day (Oct 18) figures. I’m using the 1 day numbers because it is a large sample and it has historically been more accurate than the last 3 day coverage.
|NS||0||10||1 (1)||0||Sackville (N/L)|
|NB||0||9 (1)||1||0||Funday (L/C)|
|PQ||9 (1)||25 (6)||37 (13)||0||7 (6)||LaSalle--Émard (N/L), Laurentides (L/B/N), Rimouski (N/B/L), Saint-Jean (N/B/L), Salaberry (B/N), Sherbrooke (B/N/L),|
|ON||39 (14)||78 (7)||4 (2)||0||-||Burlington (C/L), London--Fanshawe (N/L), Milton (C/L), Kanata (C/L), Kitchener South (C/L), Kitchener--Conestoga (C/L), Northumberland (C/L), Perth (C/L), Peterborough (C/L), St. Catharines (L/C), Whitby (L/C)|
|MB||8||6 (1)||0||0||-||Winnipeg Centre (L/N)|
|SK||8 (1)||1||5 (1)||0||Regina--Lewvan (N/C)|
|AB||29 (3)||3||2||0||-||Calgary Centre (C/L), Edmonton Riverbend (C/L)|
|BC||15 (2)||14 (1)||11 (5)||2 (1)||-||Courtenay (N/C/L), Nanaimo (N/L/C), North Island (N/C/L), Port Moody (N/L/C), Richmond (L/C)|
|Terr||0||3 (1)||0||0||NWT (L/N)|
|TOTAL||108 (21)||159 (17)||62 (24)||2 (1)||7 (6)|
The number is the number of seats the party should win in that province. The number in brackets is the number of those seats that are very close and could easily be lost.
Notice that despite leading in the most seats, the Liberals have the fewest close leads of the 3 largest parties. The NDP, with the fewest leads, have the highest percentage of close races. Thus, if the polls are off a little bit, or there is a slightly greater swing from NDP to Liberal between yesterday and today, the Liberals could get tantalizingly close to a majority.
Also note that there should be several exciting 3 way races to watch in Quebec and BC. The closest thing to a 4 way race in BC is Nanaimo where even the Greens, running fourth, are only 7 points back of the front running NDP. In Quebec’s Bueauport riding the Bloc is just 7 points ahead of the Liberals and Conservatives while the NDP is even closer just 3 back. Even closer is Chicoutimi where there is just 1 point between the parties in the following order: Bloc, Liberal, Conservative, NDP. Jonquière is also close with a 5 point spread between 1st (Con) and 4th (Lib/Bloc).
I won’t be shocked by a Liberal majority if we see Sackville and Funday go Liberal early, but I’ll stick with the prediction of a strong Liberal minority.